Long-term weather forecast

Definition

Long-Range Weather Forecasting, is a forecast for more than a month.

forecast item

forecast item, mainly the average temperature of the average temperature is flat and the monthly precipitation is flat and the average annual cyclic situation; sometimes it is also a typhoon, plum rain, cold lapse.

Classification

According to forecasting, it can be divided into monthly forecast, quarterly forecasting and annual forecasting.

Monthly forecast

Monthly forecasting is a short-month weather forecast, usually in late months. The main contents include average average 500hPa height field, distance prediction, (month) precipitation forecast, (month) average temperature forecast, cold air activity and typhoon activity forecast. Sometimes it is also a prediction, and the corresponding disaster weather forecast for each month.

Quarterly Forecast

Quarterly Forecasting is a forecast for precipitation, temperature trend, etc. in the last month of each quarter, and the focus should be targeted Quarterly disaster weather (make a forecast).

If the spring is doing a spring season, the weather is good, the autumn is a cold-de-rending newspaper, and the completion season is made. my country generally does not do quarterly forecasting, in addition to month forecasting, mainly doing flood season forecasting, focusing on the weather in June - September, and often held a national seminar in March, the meeting in the same year.

Annual forecast

Annual forecast is a long-term forecast of the next year, and it is made every year.

my country stipulates that forecast the main trend of the weather in September this year, including winter temperature trends, spring temperatures, precipitation trends, summer drought trends and rain zone positions, autumn precipitation trends and Cold air activity. Conditional stations also do the high change trend forecast for the Northwest Pacific.

Forecast method

forecasting method can be divided into three categories, namely weather, nuptial statistical methods, and fluid kinetic methods.

Weather climatic method

The basis of weather jester is the analysis of long-term weather processes. Due to many schools, the most famous Mu The Vanovsky School and the Wangen Gatemagier School and the Baur School of Germany. They have successfully raised a series of important long-term weather processes, such as rhythm, bit, similar, natural weather season, large circulation, big weather, etc. However, there is a lack of quantitative, objective forecasting methods.

Mathematical statistics

Mathematical statistical method is a statistical relationship between meteorological elements. Walker's World Weather, is the earliest number of mathematical statistics. In the past two or three decades, due to the advancement of electronic computers, this approach has great development, various time series analysis, multi-regression analysis, and cluster analysis can be used for long-term weather forecasts.

The problem of statistical forecasting methods is the lack of physical processes, so it has been comparable to that people should make forecasts for the statistical methods of factors with clear physical significance. US Namias first considers the change in monthly average circulation in long-term forecasts, and proves that month average cycosity is closely related to month average weather, which is of great significance for future long-term forecasting, but its forecasting method is statistics. Nature and mainly apply many years average, so there is no significant effect. In the past three decades, Namis concentrated on research on the effects of water on the atmospheric circulation and many results.

Due to the progress of satellite observations, people have a new understanding of hemispheres, sea ice, snow, and clouds, but also have a lot of information, so long-term weather Forecasting the current approach is comprehensive, that is, combining weather climate and mathematical methods, the application of electronic computer has a large number of physical factors for long-term forecasts, and predicts with research on abnormal gas circulation. Since the method is still dominated, the forecast level is still not high.

Fluid kinetic method

According to long-term numerical prediction, it is a promising forecast for a long-term numerical prediction according to fluid kinetic methods, and people have been experimenting. The work in this area can be divided into two categories, one is to use the atmospheric circulation mode daily points, the other is the direct forecast of the average distance. Due to the complexity of the problem, regular business forecasts have not been available.